Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker at Kaspar Team, RE/MAX Executives, presents real estate and current market analysis from Birch Appraisals (Market Update)
Inventory and List Prices
October inventory increased 12% compared to 10/07 and the average list price was flat at $362,000.
Each of the main counties in the Triangle has seen houses sell for more than prior purchase on average. These rates are calculated by comparing the two most recent sales prices of the same house and should not be confused with the rise or fall of the average sales price in a given area.
See the full link from Burch Appraisals: http://www.kasparteam.com/files/49869/BirchUpdate1008.pdf
Contact Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker, Kaspar Team, ReMax Executives 919-609-6999 Vic@KasparTeam.com
Friday, December 5, 2008
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
++ Real Estate Market Triangle NC
Some loan changes we've been seeing since the recent problems with the credit markets and loan institutions:
Higher down payments required
Investors buying investment properties need 20% (25% is preferred to obtain the lowest rate)
FHA will be requiring 3.5% instead of 3%
More documentation required (very few stated income programs available at high interest rates)
FHA is more difficult to get through underwriting (patience is needed)
Appraisals are more scrutinized then ever before.
Because we are not in a declining market in the Triangle, we are very fortunate. Good buyers are still being offered good loans at great rates! Call the Kaspar Team for the lastest financial information and to check out the best values and deals in Raleigh Real Estate, Cary Real Estate, and Triangle Real Estate homes, land and multi family real estate.
Higher down payments required
Investors buying investment properties need 20% (25% is preferred to obtain the lowest rate)
FHA will be requiring 3.5% instead of 3%
More documentation required (very few stated income programs available at high interest rates)
FHA is more difficult to get through underwriting (patience is needed)
Appraisals are more scrutinized then ever before.
Because we are not in a declining market in the Triangle, we are very fortunate. Good buyers are still being offered good loans at great rates! Call the Kaspar Team for the lastest financial information and to check out the best values and deals in Raleigh Real Estate, Cary Real Estate, and Triangle Real Estate homes, land and multi family real estate.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
++ MORTGAGE RATE UPDATE!
Vic Kaspar has been keeping up with various mortgage professionals in the Cary, Raleigh and Durham Real Estate Market during this financial turbulance in the Home Mortgage Market. If you've still got a variable rate mortgage, please consider refinance right away!
Your rate is most likely based on the LIBOR and it soared today by the biggest jump in almost a decade by 3.33% from 3.11% to 6.44%. This is significant. As the benchmark index for almost 40% of all ARMʼs in the US , any loan coming up for adjustment will have a huge increase, simply from this one day event. In addition, any option arm tied to labor will move literally in one month to this new index value plus margin.
If you're buying a home in Raleigh, Cary, RTP area of anywhere in the United States,
this LIBOR rate jump is important information for you. The expert's explanation is below.
U.S. Mortgage Rates May Wreak Further Havoc After Libor Climbs
By Kathleen M. Howley
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest jump in the London interbank lending rate in seven years could wreak further havoc on the U.S. housing market and there's nothing the Federal Reserve can do about it.
About 6 million U.S. mortgages, including almost all subprime home loans and 41 percent of prime ARMs, are linked to the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, according to First American CoreLogic in Santa Ana , California . Today's rate more than doubled after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed and American International Group Inc. struggled to stave off bankruptcy. If it remains elevated, it will boost the one-month to one-year Libor indexes that average the daily rate, said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates Inc., a Pompton Plains, New Jersey- based mortgage research firm.
``If this is more than a flare, if the rate remains high, there is no doubt it will have an effect on resetting mortgage contracts in the U.S.,'' Gumbinger said in an interview. ``Even a small bump in the one-month rate will be additional stress on the marketplace.''
Rates on those home loans are beyond the reach of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and others on the Federal Open Market Committee, which is meeting today. The so-called Libor- indexed loans, including the subprime mortgages that helped spark the global credit crunch, have interest rates that are set by London bankers who report to the British Bankers' Association.
ARM Adjustments
The overnight Libor rate in U.S. dollars soared 3.33 percentage points to 6.44 percent today, its biggest jump in at least seven years, according to the British Bankers' Association. Many Libor-linked U.S. mortgages don't limit the size of a loan's first adjustment, with caps of 2 percent on subsequent changes. That means a monthly mortgage bill could double or even triple when it first resets.
``If the Libor market seizes up and stays that way, it's going to complicate everything,'' said Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle . ``What you are seeing is the unwinding of the financial system as we know it.''
Banks tightened lending as AIG was downgraded by Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's, adding to evidence that the fallout from the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market is spreading. The surge in funding costs came less than a day after Lehman's bankruptcy, the biggest in history, and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s sale to Bank of America Corp.
Fed Meeting
The FOMC began its meeting this morning and is scheduled to announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington . Policy makers have cut rates seven times from September 2007 to April 2008. They suspended the easing as oil prices surged, increasing expectations inflation would accelerate.
Yesterday, the federal funds rate soared as high as 6 percent, triple the Fed's target, as banks hoarded cash. That spurred the Fed to pump $70 billion into money markets through repurchase operations, the most since September 2001.
Premiums on investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds climbed. The extra yield investors demand to buy such bonds instead of Treasuries with a comparable maturity soared to 3.80 percentage points, the highest since Merrill Lynch began keeping the data in 1996, from 3.44 percentage points on Sept. 12.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net.
Contact Vic Kaspar, Kaspar Team, RE/MAX for any question on the current real estate market or mortgage rate information (919) 609-6999 or Vic@KasparTeam.com. You can search for ALL homes for sale in the Triangle at www.KasparTeam.com
Your rate is most likely based on the LIBOR and it soared today by the biggest jump in almost a decade by 3.33% from 3.11% to 6.44%. This is significant. As the benchmark index for almost 40% of all ARMʼs in the US , any loan coming up for adjustment will have a huge increase, simply from this one day event. In addition, any option arm tied to labor will move literally in one month to this new index value plus margin.
If you're buying a home in Raleigh, Cary, RTP area of anywhere in the United States,
this LIBOR rate jump is important information for you. The expert's explanation is below.
U.S. Mortgage Rates May Wreak Further Havoc After Libor Climbs
By Kathleen M. Howley
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest jump in the London interbank lending rate in seven years could wreak further havoc on the U.S. housing market and there's nothing the Federal Reserve can do about it.
About 6 million U.S. mortgages, including almost all subprime home loans and 41 percent of prime ARMs, are linked to the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, according to First American CoreLogic in Santa Ana , California . Today's rate more than doubled after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed and American International Group Inc. struggled to stave off bankruptcy. If it remains elevated, it will boost the one-month to one-year Libor indexes that average the daily rate, said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates Inc., a Pompton Plains, New Jersey- based mortgage research firm.
``If this is more than a flare, if the rate remains high, there is no doubt it will have an effect on resetting mortgage contracts in the U.S.,'' Gumbinger said in an interview. ``Even a small bump in the one-month rate will be additional stress on the marketplace.''
Rates on those home loans are beyond the reach of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and others on the Federal Open Market Committee, which is meeting today. The so-called Libor- indexed loans, including the subprime mortgages that helped spark the global credit crunch, have interest rates that are set by London bankers who report to the British Bankers' Association.
ARM Adjustments
The overnight Libor rate in U.S. dollars soared 3.33 percentage points to 6.44 percent today, its biggest jump in at least seven years, according to the British Bankers' Association. Many Libor-linked U.S. mortgages don't limit the size of a loan's first adjustment, with caps of 2 percent on subsequent changes. That means a monthly mortgage bill could double or even triple when it first resets.
``If the Libor market seizes up and stays that way, it's going to complicate everything,'' said Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital in Seattle . ``What you are seeing is the unwinding of the financial system as we know it.''
Banks tightened lending as AIG was downgraded by Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's, adding to evidence that the fallout from the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market is spreading. The surge in funding costs came less than a day after Lehman's bankruptcy, the biggest in history, and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s sale to Bank of America Corp.
Fed Meeting
The FOMC began its meeting this morning and is scheduled to announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. in Washington . Policy makers have cut rates seven times from September 2007 to April 2008. They suspended the easing as oil prices surged, increasing expectations inflation would accelerate.
Yesterday, the federal funds rate soared as high as 6 percent, triple the Fed's target, as banks hoarded cash. That spurred the Fed to pump $70 billion into money markets through repurchase operations, the most since September 2001.
Premiums on investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds climbed. The extra yield investors demand to buy such bonds instead of Treasuries with a comparable maturity soared to 3.80 percentage points, the highest since Merrill Lynch began keeping the data in 1996, from 3.44 percentage points on Sept. 12.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net.
Contact Vic Kaspar, Kaspar Team, RE/MAX for any question on the current real estate market or mortgage rate information (919) 609-6999 or Vic@KasparTeam.com. You can search for ALL homes for sale in the Triangle at www.KasparTeam.com
Friday, July 25, 2008
++ Tax Credit for New Homebuyers! GREAT OPPORUTNITY!
From Vic Kaspar, lead broker at the Kaspar Team and RE/MAX Executives:
Here's great news for First Time Home Buyers in the Raleigh Real Estate market: Tax Credit of up to $7,500 off Federal Taxes for anyone who buys a home from April 9th, 2008, and July 1st, 2009! Imagion the rush this November and December to by Cary Real Estate, Raleigh Real Estate, Apex Real Estate, the entire Triangle, to get back $7,500 in a few months as added tax money back! A check from the IRS back to you! You can buy a lot of furniture, appliances, and household items with the Federal Tax Credit money.
The House passed the bill this Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008, and the Senate is expected to pass the proposal in coming days, sending it to President Bush. The president on Wednesday dropped a veto threat over a portion of the bill.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said that the housing rescue bill should play a major role in helping the housing market to rebound. He said an especially significant feature is a tax break worth up to $7,500 for first-time home buyers who purchase between April 9 of this year and July 1, 2009, as reported on www.kasparteam.com blog.
Yun estimated that up to 3 million first-time home buyers could qualify for that tax break, providing a significant boost to sales at a critical time. That 3 Million could mean 60,000 to 100,000 additional sales in North Carolina alone. And since Raleigh, Durham, Cary are the 2nd largest market in North Carolina, this could translate into an additional 30,000 plus homes sold in Raleigh Real Estate alone if this federal bill is signed by President Bush this month.
"I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said.
Here's great news for First Time Home Buyers in the Raleigh Real Estate market: Tax Credit of up to $7,500 off Federal Taxes for anyone who buys a home from April 9th, 2008, and July 1st, 2009! Imagion the rush this November and December to by Cary Real Estate, Raleigh Real Estate, Apex Real Estate, the entire Triangle, to get back $7,500 in a few months as added tax money back! A check from the IRS back to you! You can buy a lot of furniture, appliances, and household items with the Federal Tax Credit money.
The House passed the bill this Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008, and the Senate is expected to pass the proposal in coming days, sending it to President Bush. The president on Wednesday dropped a veto threat over a portion of the bill.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said that the housing rescue bill should play a major role in helping the housing market to rebound. He said an especially significant feature is a tax break worth up to $7,500 for first-time home buyers who purchase between April 9 of this year and July 1, 2009, as reported on www.kasparteam.com blog.
Yun estimated that up to 3 million first-time home buyers could qualify for that tax break, providing a significant boost to sales at a critical time. That 3 Million could mean 60,000 to 100,000 additional sales in North Carolina alone. And since Raleigh, Durham, Cary are the 2nd largest market in North Carolina, this could translate into an additional 30,000 plus homes sold in Raleigh Real Estate alone if this federal bill is signed by President Bush this month.
"I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
WORRIED? Freddie Mac and Fannie May - Don't Be!
"The only thing we need to fear is fear itself". This was said a long time ago when this country was in much worse shape then it is in now.
We do not have the ability to predict the future, but we do have information in front of us in order to make educated decisions about what our next moves will be. Personally with the information that I have read and statements from the CEO of Fannie Mae I feel more confident that the government is being proactive instead of reactive in this housing correction. The statement attached below clearly says that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to hold more than adequate capital reserves.
The reality is you purchase a stock when prices are down. You should be purchasing homes when sellers are more willing to negotiate. This is good time to evaluate your credit standings, rid your self of high interest credit card debt, and set a stable foundation so you can still focus on future financial stability.
Please contact me for a FREE Mortgage Evaluation.
Jeff Forman, D N J Mortgage, Raleigh, NC 919-337-5485
The following are articles and statements in regards to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac current standings:
WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve announced steps Sunday to shore up mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac either hold or back $5.3 trillion of mortgage debt. That's about half the outstanding mortgages in the United States.
Secretary Henry Paulson said the government is planning to expand its current line of credit to the two companies should they need to tap it and Treasury could buy equity capital in the companies - if needed.
News Release
July 13, 2008
Statement by Daniel H. Mudd, President and CEO
Fannie Mae appreciates today's announcements and the expressions of support for the GSEs as shareholder-owned companies that play a critical role in the U.S. housing finance system. We are grateful for the leadership of Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke. We also look forward to working with Treasury, OFHEO and Congress on swift passage of the new legislative proposals, as well as the important initiatives underway to assist homeowners and help restore stability to the housing market. We continue to hold more than adequate capital reserves and maintain access to liquidity from the capital markets. Given the market turmoil, having options to access provisional sources of liquidity if needed will help to strengthen overall confidence in the market. We will continue to do our part to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the housing market now and in the future.
====
The above Blog from Kaspar Team Preferred Lender for Cary, Raleigh and Durham area Real Estate. Introducing Jeff Forman, of DNJ Mortgage, located in Raleigh,near the RBC Center, convenient to Cary, Durham, Raleigh, Wake Forest, Garner and points East.
DNJ and the Kaspar Team work close together to aquire the best rates and terms for buyers of Raleigh and Cary area Real Estate.
Jeff Forman (919) 337-5485 or Vic Kaspar, Kaspar Team, RE/MAX (919) 609-6999 Vic@KasparTeam.com
We do not have the ability to predict the future, but we do have information in front of us in order to make educated decisions about what our next moves will be. Personally with the information that I have read and statements from the CEO of Fannie Mae I feel more confident that the government is being proactive instead of reactive in this housing correction. The statement attached below clearly says that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to hold more than adequate capital reserves.
The reality is you purchase a stock when prices are down. You should be purchasing homes when sellers are more willing to negotiate. This is good time to evaluate your credit standings, rid your self of high interest credit card debt, and set a stable foundation so you can still focus on future financial stability.
Please contact me for a FREE Mortgage Evaluation.
Jeff Forman, D N J Mortgage, Raleigh, NC 919-337-5485
The following are articles and statements in regards to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac current standings:
WASHINGTON (AP) - The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve announced steps Sunday to shore up mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac either hold or back $5.3 trillion of mortgage debt. That's about half the outstanding mortgages in the United States.
Secretary Henry Paulson said the government is planning to expand its current line of credit to the two companies should they need to tap it and Treasury could buy equity capital in the companies - if needed.
News Release
July 13, 2008
Statement by Daniel H. Mudd, President and CEO
Fannie Mae appreciates today's announcements and the expressions of support for the GSEs as shareholder-owned companies that play a critical role in the U.S. housing finance system. We are grateful for the leadership of Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke. We also look forward to working with Treasury, OFHEO and Congress on swift passage of the new legislative proposals, as well as the important initiatives underway to assist homeowners and help restore stability to the housing market. We continue to hold more than adequate capital reserves and maintain access to liquidity from the capital markets. Given the market turmoil, having options to access provisional sources of liquidity if needed will help to strengthen overall confidence in the market. We will continue to do our part to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the housing market now and in the future.
====
The above Blog from Kaspar Team Preferred Lender for Cary, Raleigh and Durham area Real Estate. Introducing Jeff Forman, of DNJ Mortgage, located in Raleigh,near the RBC Center, convenient to Cary, Durham, Raleigh, Wake Forest, Garner and points East.
DNJ and the Kaspar Team work close together to aquire the best rates and terms for buyers of Raleigh and Cary area Real Estate.
Jeff Forman
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
New Lending Rules will have big impact on you sometime!
New Lending Rules will have big impact on you sometime!
Wow, here's the fallout from the 'so called' Sub Prime lending mess:
The Federal Government is going to issue broad rules covering responsibiity
for lenders to do their 'due dilligence', and mandate that they 'be fair'.
Among the big changes:
You'll have to have the income proof in addition to good credit to buy, no more
'credit only' loans. For sellers, that will mean less buyers for those more
expensive homes, or lower end homes. Homes in the middle will be fine. But
these new rules in Summer and Fall of 2008 from the Federal Government will take buyers out of the market in Raleigh, Durham, Cary, RTP and Wake County Real Estate.
Here's what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has to say about this far reaching
change that will effect Raleigh, Durham Real Estate Buyers and Sellers this Summer and Fall of 2008:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080708/D91PMQA80.html
Wow, here's the fallout from the 'so called' Sub Prime lending mess:
The Federal Government is going to issue broad rules covering responsibiity
for lenders to do their 'due dilligence', and mandate that they 'be fair'.
Among the big changes:
You'll have to have the income proof in addition to good credit to buy, no more
'credit only' loans. For sellers, that will mean less buyers for those more
expensive homes, or lower end homes. Homes in the middle will be fine. But
these new rules in Summer and Fall of 2008 from the Federal Government will take buyers out of the market in Raleigh, Durham, Cary, RTP and Wake County Real Estate.
Here's what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has to say about this far reaching
change that will effect Raleigh, Durham Real Estate Buyers and Sellers this Summer and Fall of 2008:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080708/D91PMQA80.html
Monday, July 7, 2008
Return of the First Time Home Buyers to Raleigh Real Estate!
Return of the First Time Home Buyers to Raleigh Real Estate!
Guess what? Homes are affordable again for First Time Home Buyers!
Now that the supply v.s. demand law has hit the wall on the supply side, the fall out
is falling prices for smaller homes in Raleigh, Morrisville, Research Triangle Park (RTP) and the Cary and Holly Springs areas filling the a demand for a good deal...or a great deal....and new home builders are leading the way to fill that demand (or desire) from First Time Home Buyers.
Builders in Raleigh area are cutting prices $15,000, $25,000, $40,000 and more. Unlike
a single home owner-seller, a new home builder can take a loss on a few homes to roll
over cash flow, and bingo, advantage: Home Buyer! Interest rates are
still historically low. Homes under $250,000, and especially under $200,000
in the Raleigh, Durham, Cary area are flying off the MLS, usually sold in
30 days or less.
Check out this recent story: http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/on-the-path-to-a-housing-rebound.html
And to see those lower prices in Raleigh, Cary, RTP and Wake County areas in N.C., go to http://www.kasparteam.com/ for Award Winning Real Estate Coverage
Vic Kaspar
Lead Broker
Kaspar Team
RE/MAX Executives
Voice: (919) 380-0096
Fax & Voice Mail:
(919)-990-3040
Guess what? Homes are affordable again for First Time Home Buyers!
Now that the supply v.s. demand law has hit the wall on the supply side, the fall out
is falling prices for smaller homes in Raleigh, Morrisville, Research Triangle Park (RTP) and the Cary and Holly Springs areas filling the a demand for a good deal...or a great deal....and new home builders are leading the way to fill that demand (or desire) from First Time Home Buyers.
Builders in Raleigh area are cutting prices $15,000, $25,000, $40,000 and more. Unlike
a single home owner-seller, a new home builder can take a loss on a few homes to roll
over cash flow, and bingo, advantage: Home Buyer! Interest rates are
still historically low. Homes under $250,000, and especially under $200,000
in the Raleigh, Durham, Cary area are flying off the MLS, usually sold in
30 days or less.
Check out this recent story: http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/on-the-path-to-a-housing-rebound.html
And to see those lower prices in Raleigh, Cary, RTP and Wake County areas in N.C., go to http://www.kasparteam.com/ for Award Winning Real Estate Coverage
Vic Kaspar
Lead Broker
Kaspar Team
RE/MAX Executives
Voice: (919) 380-0096
Fax & Voice Mail:
(919)-990-3040
Monday, June 16, 2008
Mistakes the News Media Makes Reporting the Current Real Estate Market in North Carolina and South East in Summer/Fall of 2008
Report by Denise Lones For the Kaspar Team at RE/MAX
Here we go again. The news media is back and playing its old game of pummeling the airwaves with predictions of doom for the real estate industry. "The Big Crash Is Coming," "Disaster Ahead," "The Bubble Is About To Burst." Blah, blah, blah.
And it's working. People are scared. You can't go to a supermarket or coffee shop without overhearing a conversation about how bad the market is. Whenever you hear a piece of information pounded at you from different sources, naturally it's going to sink in. But it's up to you to think. Don't just blindly believe a newsreader just because they are on television. True, numbers have been falling. Nobody can deny that. But, the "end of the world" hype is just not supported by any evidence. You must always remember that news media love predictions of disaster because it scares people into watching the news-even if it never happens.
But it's up to you to think. Don't just blindly believe a newsreader just because they are on television. True, numbers have been falling. Nobody can deny that. But, the "end of the world" hype is just not supported by any evidence. You must always remember that news media love predictions of disaster because it scares people into watching the news-even if it never happens.
This phenomenon of modern news is on display every time a storm brews in the ocean.
Suddenly, the Final Days of Earth are upon us-then the storm turns to a little rain and it's all over. News people love reporting about imminent air disasters, L.A. car chases, and Wall Street's ups and downs.
The problem is that the facts don't support the wild claims.
When a market crashes, there must be a catalyst for that crash. There isn't one. There are only fluctuations. Today's fluctuations may be swinging downward more than last year, but it's by no means a crash. There has been no event-like the stock market crash of 1929 or other disaster-large enough to cause a crash.
Further, I'll go on to say that we are in one of the best times in real estate history. No, I'm not kidding. I'm very serious here. While agents are panicking all across the country and thinking about getting back into the corporate world, I say this is the best time to be a real estate agent.
The news media would laugh at me, but they're not in the trenches every day with me and they don't see what I see. What do I see?
A strong economy. This is a key factor in any analysis of the real estate market. The current economic viability of the United States ensures that no matter how wild the real estate market fluctuations may be, there are still people with money. And people with money will always want new property.
Job growth. Similarly, so long as new jobs are being created, there will always be a demand for housing. Companies open up new facilities and their employees who move there need places to live.
A moving population. Americans move more than ever before. The average time people spend in a home has dropped dramatically over the past 30 years. They buy, sell, move again, buy summer homes, buy winter homes, buy investment property, and buy homes for their parents.
So what's all the hype about, right? How can I possibly make these apparently outlandish statements while the news media is saying the exact opposite? Well, the market HAS cooled a little bit. No, I take back the word "cooled." That just feeds the media's "crash" frenzy. The numbers have slightly declined, but they've declined in a market that was in the midst of the biggest boom in history. That fact must be taken into consideration for any accurate analysis.
Remember, the past ten years have been spectacular - in fact, abnormally high. Numbers may be dropping a bit, but they're dropping to a level that is still above average.
Let's put things into a numbers' perspective. If our market in 2005 had increased by 25%, then "cooled" 4% in 2006, then we're still 21% up! This is not a "crash." This isn't even "cooling," but according to the news media the real estate market as we know it is about to explode. I don't think so. Okay, let's play their game and we'll say the market crashes tomorrow. According to the media, this would mean that there is no more real estate activity or reason for anyone to buy. What they do not take into account is the fact that no matter what happens in the real estate market, the necessities of life guarantee real estate transactions. Even if interest rates went up to 18%, there would still be a lot of real estate activity.
A good agent survives and even thrives in a more difficult market. People need agents more in such a market. They need your help, advice, research, and skills. The agent who embraces a downturn in the market is the one who will take advantage of such a market and make it work in their favor. Remember 20 years ago when interest rates went into double digits? Were real estate agents not working? No. Were people not selling? No. Things may have worked a bit differently, but good agents were making money. The market also takes care of itself in up-and down- turns because when interest rates rise, prices drop. There is always a balance effect. Not to mention there are scores of people who come out of the woodwork to take advantage of a "down" market by buying at lower prices-people who would not buy in an "up" market, because prices were too high. Different market, different clients. So, stop fearing the crash! First of all, there isn't one. And even if there were, your best antidote is the knowledge that no matter what kind of market we're in, you can survive. Your attitude is your greatest ally. As long as you understand how it all balances out and you know how to adapt to market fluctuations, you'll thrive by providing the same informed service to your clients.
Be sure to contact Vic Kaspar, Kaspar Team, RE/MAX Executives for any information on the real estate market in the raleigh, cary, nc area. (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTeam.com
Here we go again. The news media is back and playing its old game of pummeling the airwaves with predictions of doom for the real estate industry. "The Big Crash Is Coming," "Disaster Ahead," "The Bubble Is About To Burst." Blah, blah, blah.
And it's working. People are scared. You can't go to a supermarket or coffee shop without overhearing a conversation about how bad the market is. Whenever you hear a piece of information pounded at you from different sources, naturally it's going to sink in. But it's up to you to think. Don't just blindly believe a newsreader just because they are on television. True, numbers have been falling. Nobody can deny that. But, the "end of the world" hype is just not supported by any evidence. You must always remember that news media love predictions of disaster because it scares people into watching the news-even if it never happens.
But it's up to you to think. Don't just blindly believe a newsreader just because they are on television. True, numbers have been falling. Nobody can deny that. But, the "end of the world" hype is just not supported by any evidence. You must always remember that news media love predictions of disaster because it scares people into watching the news-even if it never happens.
This phenomenon of modern news is on display every time a storm brews in the ocean.
Suddenly, the Final Days of Earth are upon us-then the storm turns to a little rain and it's all over. News people love reporting about imminent air disasters, L.A. car chases, and Wall Street's ups and downs.
The problem is that the facts don't support the wild claims.
When a market crashes, there must be a catalyst for that crash. There isn't one. There are only fluctuations. Today's fluctuations may be swinging downward more than last year, but it's by no means a crash. There has been no event-like the stock market crash of 1929 or other disaster-large enough to cause a crash.
Further, I'll go on to say that we are in one of the best times in real estate history. No, I'm not kidding. I'm very serious here. While agents are panicking all across the country and thinking about getting back into the corporate world, I say this is the best time to be a real estate agent.
The news media would laugh at me, but they're not in the trenches every day with me and they don't see what I see. What do I see?
A strong economy. This is a key factor in any analysis of the real estate market. The current economic viability of the United States ensures that no matter how wild the real estate market fluctuations may be, there are still people with money. And people with money will always want new property.
Job growth. Similarly, so long as new jobs are being created, there will always be a demand for housing. Companies open up new facilities and their employees who move there need places to live.
A moving population. Americans move more than ever before. The average time people spend in a home has dropped dramatically over the past 30 years. They buy, sell, move again, buy summer homes, buy winter homes, buy investment property, and buy homes for their parents.
So what's all the hype about, right? How can I possibly make these apparently outlandish statements while the news media is saying the exact opposite? Well, the market HAS cooled a little bit. No, I take back the word "cooled." That just feeds the media's "crash" frenzy. The numbers have slightly declined, but they've declined in a market that was in the midst of the biggest boom in history. That fact must be taken into consideration for any accurate analysis.
Remember, the past ten years have been spectacular - in fact, abnormally high. Numbers may be dropping a bit, but they're dropping to a level that is still above average.
Let's put things into a numbers' perspective. If our market in 2005 had increased by 25%, then "cooled" 4% in 2006, then we're still 21% up! This is not a "crash." This isn't even "cooling," but according to the news media the real estate market as we know it is about to explode. I don't think so. Okay, let's play their game and we'll say the market crashes tomorrow. According to the media, this would mean that there is no more real estate activity or reason for anyone to buy. What they do not take into account is the fact that no matter what happens in the real estate market, the necessities of life guarantee real estate transactions. Even if interest rates went up to 18%, there would still be a lot of real estate activity.
A good agent survives and even thrives in a more difficult market. People need agents more in such a market. They need your help, advice, research, and skills. The agent who embraces a downturn in the market is the one who will take advantage of such a market and make it work in their favor. Remember 20 years ago when interest rates went into double digits? Were real estate agents not working? No. Were people not selling? No. Things may have worked a bit differently, but good agents were making money. The market also takes care of itself in up-and down- turns because when interest rates rise, prices drop. There is always a balance effect. Not to mention there are scores of people who come out of the woodwork to take advantage of a "down" market by buying at lower prices-people who would not buy in an "up" market, because prices were too high. Different market, different clients. So, stop fearing the crash! First of all, there isn't one. And even if there were, your best antidote is the knowledge that no matter what kind of market we're in, you can survive. Your attitude is your greatest ally. As long as you understand how it all balances out and you know how to adapt to market fluctuations, you'll thrive by providing the same informed service to your clients.
Be sure to contact Vic Kaspar, Kaspar Team, RE/MAX Executives for any information on the real estate market in the raleigh, cary, nc area. (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTeam.com
Monday, June 9, 2008
Mortgage Opportunities Abound in Today's NC Real Estate Market!
Read the below from Jeff Forman, In House Lender, Allied Home Mortgage of Cary, NC for the Kaspar Team, RE/MAX Executives!
There are 3 things going on in the real estate and housing market that are truly amazing:
1. Sellers are more willing to negotiate sales prices and help buyers achieve homeownership with a very low interest rates and no money down.
2. Interest rates are at historic lows. this along with sellers contributions towards lowering rates down further and the willingness to pay all closing costs allows for affordable payments while building equity.
3. With most of the nation going through downward adjustments in home values the research triangle has seen increase in home values of 5% a year. With a focus on equity building and keeping within your monthly budget. The Kaspar team and allied home mortgage can help you with a 5 year plan to achieve financial stability.
For example a 200k home with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with no money down would be 1500 per month. With a 5% appreciation or 10k per year your equity position would be 30k after 3 years. Take 20k of that money and put a down payment on a 260k home. Borrowing 240k with a 30 year fixed rate loan would be 1900 per month. With 5% appreciation on 260k home or 13k per year. After 3 years you will have an equity position of 59k. Take 40k of that money and you have a 10% down payment on your dream home along with 29k in reserves that if invested correctly will give a good return yearly.
Call Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker, Kaspar Team, for more info on any homes in the Raleigh, Cary, Fuquay, NC Real estate market Vic@KasparTeam.com (919) 609-6999
There are 3 things going on in the real estate and housing market that are truly amazing:
1. Sellers are more willing to negotiate sales prices and help buyers achieve homeownership with a very low interest rates and no money down.
2. Interest rates are at historic lows. this along with sellers contributions towards lowering rates down further and the willingness to pay all closing costs allows for affordable payments while building equity.
3. With most of the nation going through downward adjustments in home values the research triangle has seen increase in home values of 5% a year. With a focus on equity building and keeping within your monthly budget. The Kaspar team and allied home mortgage can help you with a 5 year plan to achieve financial stability.
For example a 200k home with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with no money down would be 1500 per month. With a 5% appreciation or 10k per year your equity position would be 30k after 3 years. Take 20k of that money and put a down payment on a 260k home. Borrowing 240k with a 30 year fixed rate loan would be 1900 per month. With 5% appreciation on 260k home or 13k per year. After 3 years you will have an equity position of 59k. Take 40k of that money and you have a 10% down payment on your dream home along with 29k in reserves that if invested correctly will give a good return yearly.
Call Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker, Kaspar Team, for more info on any homes in the Raleigh, Cary, Fuquay, NC Real estate market Vic@KasparTeam.com (919) 609-6999
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
++ Housing Crisis Is Over! ++
Great article from the Wall Street Journal!
OPINION
The Housing Crisis Is Over
By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUXMay 6, 2008; Page A23
The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.
How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.
Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.
Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.
The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.
Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.
Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.
The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.
In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.
The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.
Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.
Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.
Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.
Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.
This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.
When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.
More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.
A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.
We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.
Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York.
See all of today's editorials and op-eds, plus video commentary, on Opinion Journal.
The Kaspar Team, REMax Executives, serving the Triangle in NC has seen a recent jump in the real estate market! Contact our lead broker, Vic Kaspar, (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTEam.com for more info.
You can also always search for all homes for sale at www.KasparTeam.com
OPINION
The Housing Crisis Is Over
By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUXMay 6, 2008; Page A23
The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.
How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.
Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.
Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.
The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.
Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.
Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.
The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.
In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.
The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high – but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.
Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.
Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 – or seven months of supply – by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.
Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.
Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.
This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.
When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.
More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.
A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.
We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.
Mr. Moulle-Berteaux is managing partner of Traxis Partners LP, a hedge fund firm based in New York.
See all of today's editorials and op-eds, plus video commentary, on Opinion Journal.
The Kaspar Team, REMax Executives, serving the Triangle in NC has seen a recent jump in the real estate market! Contact our lead broker, Vic Kaspar, (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTEam.com for more info.
You can also always search for all homes for sale at www.KasparTeam.com
Thursday, April 10, 2008
++ It's a Decent Triangle Market! ++
This is from a lender of ours, Eleanor Thorne:
I'm writing to give you links to material that I see as GOOD NEWS for the Triangle Housing Market. If you're like me - you are always looking for items to include in your blog - or to pass on to your clients assuring them that what they hear on the news is NOT what's happening here!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a9IHTo2G8GzE
The FIRST part of the article does look rather bleak - but get to the bottom where they comment on the areas NOT likely to see ANY DROP..."less than a 1 percent chance of lower prices in two years. "
Charlotte is listed as one of those Cities! Raleigh is not listed because they are using a Schiller Case Housing Index. This index does not "score" metro areas our size. The OFHEO Index does measure Raleigh/Cary and the next release date is April 22nd (for Feb numbers). This national index shows Raleigh/Cary right in-line with the Charlotte market.
I'm writing to give you links to material that I see as GOOD NEWS for the Triangle Housing Market. If you're like me - you are always looking for items to include in your blog - or to pass on to your clients assuring them that what they hear on the news is NOT what's happening here!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a9IHTo2G8GzE
The FIRST part of the article does look rather bleak - but get to the bottom where they comment on the areas NOT likely to see ANY DROP..."less than a 1 percent chance of lower prices in two years. "
Charlotte is listed as one of those Cities! Raleigh is not listed because they are using a Schiller Case Housing Index. This index does not "score" metro areas our size. The OFHEO Index does measure Raleigh/Cary and the next release date is April 22nd (for Feb numbers). This national index shows Raleigh/Cary right in-line with the Charlotte market.
Monday, March 24, 2008
++ GREAT MORTGAGE RATES! ++
Jeff Forman, Allied Home Mortgage Corp in Cary (jforman@alliedhomenet.com) just notified us of the following:
There are many positive things going on in the Real Estate Market. Sellers/Builders are more willing to negotiate and interest rates are at historic lows. FHA loan limits have been raised and is still one of the best programs available for buyers with less than perfect credit and offers the lowest rates available as well.
Please contact me directly for a Free Mortgage Ananlysis.
30 Year Fixed FHA Purchase or Refinance - 5.375%
30 Year Fixed Conventional Purchase or Refinance - 5.5%
30 Year Fixed Rural Housing / USDA - 5.375%
Contact Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker, Kaspar Team, ReMax Executives for all of your NC Raleigh, Cary and Triangle NC area homes! (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTeam.com. You can search for all homes for sale OR see what your home is worth at: www.KasparTeam.com
There are many positive things going on in the Real Estate Market. Sellers/Builders are more willing to negotiate and interest rates are at historic lows. FHA loan limits have been raised and is still one of the best programs available for buyers with less than perfect credit and offers the lowest rates available as well.
Please contact me directly for a Free Mortgage Ananlysis.
30 Year Fixed FHA Purchase or Refinance - 5.375%
30 Year Fixed Conventional Purchase or Refinance - 5.5%
30 Year Fixed Rural Housing / USDA - 5.375%
Contact Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker, Kaspar Team, ReMax Executives for all of your NC Raleigh, Cary and Triangle NC area homes! (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTeam.com. You can search for all homes for sale OR see what your home is worth at: www.KasparTeam.com
Thursday, March 13, 2008
INTEREST Rates Headed Down!
Here's great news from one of our Team Lenders, Jeff Forman at AlliedJeff Forman jforman@Alliedhomenet.com
Fed ready to lower rates again - FHA 30 Purchase 5.375% 30 year fixed
The Federal Government is getting ready to meet again on March 18th and will in fact lower "Prime" interest rates once again. This may be a very aggressive reduction in rates and hopefully will bring 30 year fixed rates down substantially.
Please feel free to contact me directly with any questions you may have or if you need a free anaysis of your current mortgage/financial situation.
Interest rates for an FHA purchase closed yesterday at 5.375% for a 30 year fixed.
Fed ready to lower rates again - FHA 30 Purchase 5.375% 30 year fixed
The Federal Government is getting ready to meet again on March 18th and will in fact lower "Prime" interest rates once again. This may be a very aggressive reduction in rates and hopefully will bring 30 year fixed rates down substantially.
Please feel free to contact me directly with any questions you may have or if you need a free anaysis of your current mortgage/financial situation.
Interest rates for an FHA purchase closed yesterday at 5.375% for a 30 year fixed.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
++ Excellent Interest Rates! ++
I just received word from Jeff Forman, Allied Home Mortgage (the largest individual owned brokerage in the US) that mortgage rates are at: 30 year fixed conventional- 6.125%
FHA - 5.625%. That is incredibly impressive! Give Vic a call for more info (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTeam.com
FHA - 5.625%. That is incredibly impressive! Give Vic a call for more info (919) 280-9898 or Vic@KasparTeam.com
Thursday, March 6, 2008
++ Raleigh / Cary / Durham NC Market on UPSWING! ++
I think the housing market has hit bottom in the Raleigh N.C. area and actually is headed back up. Cases to support that. 4 of my last listings sold in less than 30 days. Yes, Almost a Million Dollars in Real Estate, sold in less than 30 days in February to close in March. One in 14 days and another in 19 days. The other two at 27 and 28 days! That's better, much better than in the 90s when everyone seemed to be moving to the Raleigh, Durham and Cary Triangle.
It takes buyers to buy those homes, and they are getting the loans to buy them too. So all this gloom and doom is reporting on pockets like Orlando, Florida, where the market is really not good at all. But Raleigh? It's a different real estate market here.
More good news: FHA raised the minimum loan amount for mortgages in our area to $295000. This means you can sell a house over $300,000 and the borrower can obtain a FHA mortgage! The rates are good, the down payment can be a gift (or a Down Payment Assistance Program) and the credit scores are much more forgiving!
Regards,
Vic
It takes buyers to buy those homes, and they are getting the loans to buy them too. So all this gloom and doom is reporting on pockets like Orlando, Florida, where the market is really not good at all. But Raleigh? It's a different real estate market here.
More good news: FHA raised the minimum loan amount for mortgages in our area to $295000. This means you can sell a house over $300,000 and the borrower can obtain a FHA mortgage! The rates are good, the down payment can be a gift (or a Down Payment Assistance Program) and the credit scores are much more forgiving!
Regards,
Vic
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Local Raleigh Cary NC Real Estate Market is starting to fire up!
Local market is starting to fire up!
This past Sunday, 24 different buyers came to 4 Kaspar Team Open Houses, which we ran on the same days, Sunday, February 9th, 2007.
That in itself may not sound so remarkable, but just 60 days ago, we did a few Open Houses and just one buyer showed up. With interest rates so low, hovering about 5%, and over 17,000 homes on the market in the Raleigh, Durham, Cary area, buyers are starting to get the message. Now is a great time to buy. Many sellers who put their home on the market in Cary, Holly Springs, Garner, Raleigh, Wake Forest, and Clayton, have now been trying to sell for over 150 days! So prices have been going down on that inventory, which was offered starting in October and over the holidays.
Meanwhile, new listings are coming on higher, due in part to the new Tax Assessments, which in many cases went up 20% to 30% and more. Although sellers should realize in North Carolina that tax rates have no relationship to market rates. Tax Rates are just a way to get more money from property owners, and are fixed for several years. The market can go up and down, the tax man gets his at a guaranteed rate.
I urge sellers to stop looking at tax rates, and only focus 3 things: 1) Similar square footage homes on the market now and their cost per square foot. 2) Similar size homes that sold and transferred ownership in the last six months, and 3) The condition, features, maintenance, age of critical systems like heating and cooling, room, etc., and how the current condition of their home compares with others on the market and recently sold. Then we'll establish a price $5,000 or $10,000 higher in most cases, and market it aggressively. With my system of Internet Advertising, and local marketing, homes usually sell before the average time.
For current market statistics, background and expert real estate advise and service for the Research Triangle Area, Cary, Apex, Raleigh and Durham, go to: www.kasparteam.com
This past Sunday, 24 different buyers came to 4 Kaspar Team Open Houses, which we ran on the same days, Sunday, February 9th, 2007.
That in itself may not sound so remarkable, but just 60 days ago, we did a few Open Houses and just one buyer showed up. With interest rates so low, hovering about 5%, and over 17,000 homes on the market in the Raleigh, Durham, Cary area, buyers are starting to get the message. Now is a great time to buy. Many sellers who put their home on the market in Cary, Holly Springs, Garner, Raleigh, Wake Forest, and Clayton, have now been trying to sell for over 150 days! So prices have been going down on that inventory, which was offered starting in October and over the holidays.
Meanwhile, new listings are coming on higher, due in part to the new Tax Assessments, which in many cases went up 20% to 30% and more. Although sellers should realize in North Carolina that tax rates have no relationship to market rates. Tax Rates are just a way to get more money from property owners, and are fixed for several years. The market can go up and down, the tax man gets his at a guaranteed rate.
I urge sellers to stop looking at tax rates, and only focus 3 things: 1) Similar square footage homes on the market now and their cost per square foot. 2) Similar size homes that sold and transferred ownership in the last six months, and 3) The condition, features, maintenance, age of critical systems like heating and cooling, room, etc., and how the current condition of their home compares with others on the market and recently sold. Then we'll establish a price $5,000 or $10,000 higher in most cases, and market it aggressively. With my system of Internet Advertising, and local marketing, homes usually sell before the average time.
For current market statistics, background and expert real estate advise and service for the Research Triangle Area, Cary, Apex, Raleigh and Durham, go to: www.kasparteam.com
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
NC Still a Top Destination Choice!
Check out this great article from the editors of Conway.com
North Carolina keeps its spot atop Site Selection's U.S. Business Climate ranking; a defense contractor explains why he's not surprised.
by MARK AREND and ADAM BRUNS,editor bounce@conway.com
North Carolina has no intention of ceding its Top Business Climate ranking any time soon. For the third consecutive year – and for the sixth time in seven years – North Carolina ranks first in Site Selection's annual state business climate analysis.
Dan Busher, executive vice president, Force Protection, Inc.
Photo by Karen Tam Photography, Raleigh, N.C.Fifty percent of the total score is based on a survey of corporate real estate decision makers and 50 percent comes from data associated with actual project activity as tracked by our proprietary New Plant database (see the charts). Even as North Carolina economic development officials were learning of their latest business climate win in October, the state's power to produce jobs was evident. INC Research, a contract research organization (CRO), announced October 10th that it would create 1,093 new jobs through a $19-million expansion at its headquarters in Raleigh, where it already employs 362. A Job Development Investment Grant (JDIG) helped close the deal, but CEO Jim Ogle cited "access and proximity to world-class academic and research facilities" as the key factor in growing its Raleigh operation. In September, PRA International, another CRO, announced it would relocate its headquarters from northern Virginia to Raleigh, where it will have access to a well-stocked talent pool; more than 40 biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies are based in the Raleigh area. But CEO Terrance Beiker said at the project announcement that another factor was in play, as well. "The business climate and quality of life offered by North Carolina should allow the company to reduce corporate infrastructure costs and ensure a highly efficient, qualified and satisfied work force." And speaking of CROs, Quintiles Transnational Corp. announced in November 2006 a $10-million, 1,000-job expansion at its Durham headquarters. A private developer is investing $50 million to build a facility for Quintiles in Durham. But CROs aren't the only companies investing in North Carolina.
Quick and Assertive' Dan Busher, executive vice president of armored vehicle manufacturer Force Protection, Inc., wasn't surprised to learn of North Carolina's Top Business Climate billing. Busher recently worked with the state in securing a former Collins & Aikman plant in Roxboro in which to expand its manufacturing operations. "I became acquainted with what North Carolina had to offer because we were already doing business in South Carolina," he explains. "We were looking for another site and wanted to stay in the southeast generally. We spent a lot of time looking in South Carolina, which, by the way, has a good business climate, too." After scanning existing sites and buildings in the North Carolina Dept. of Commerce's database (since updated to a new EDIS, or electronic data information system),
Busher's team narrowed the search to two buildings. "The Commerce folks were very quick and assertive," says Busher, in terms of "understanding the project and our needs, and making preliminary commitments to how they might support those needs. They referred us to resources to support the grant process, too," he relates. "Locally, the folks in Person County were hungry to understand our project and needs. They wanted to not just bring on money, but take on projects as inducements to bringing in the plant. Instead of discussion about tax incentives, they wanted to know about our needs. "We were looking at a large, unsecured site, and they were aggressive about understanding what security meant to us," Busher says. "They worked with neighbors to solve existing right-of-way issues, and were quick and aggressive to resolve and move that right of way. It's really just a climate of seeking to understand in more creative ways than just throwing money at it."
United in Success "What stood out at the state, city and county levels was that once we expressed interest, they were very proactive," Busher says. "There was not a lot of bureaucracy, not a lot of red tape. They worked with us to make the application process as painless as possible. "We had one very memorable meeting," Busher recalls. "After my first viewing of the property, I told our CEO it might be worth his time for a second visit. When we came back, the economic development team of Glen Newsome [executive director of the Person County Economic Development Commission] and Jim Stovall [chairman of the Person County Economic Development Board] arranged a lunch at Piedmont Community College, whose president was there. They had the mayor, the school superintendent, city council members and county council members. We had lunch together, got to know each other and shared material about the company and the community. It wasn't just a table full of people attending a meeting. To a person, everyone had something they wanted to offer to help our project succeed. They all had something tangible to contribute to make the project a success." Force Protection's customers are led by all branches of the U.S. Dept. of Defense, but also include the Iraqi military, via the U.S. Dept. of Defense, "as part of the effort to equip and train the Iraqi Army," says Busher. Other customers include the U.K. Ministry of Defense, and there are "sales pending with the Canadians and Italians, and ongoing discussions with other parties," he says. "But you can imagine the U.S. government is inclined to consume most of our capacity."
For other pertinent info go to www.KasparTeam.com for searching for ALL listings in the triangle, Raleigh, Cary and other areas of NC real estate.
North Carolina keeps its spot atop Site Selection's U.S. Business Climate ranking; a defense contractor explains why he's not surprised.
by MARK AREND and ADAM BRUNS,editor bounce@conway.com
North Carolina has no intention of ceding its Top Business Climate ranking any time soon. For the third consecutive year – and for the sixth time in seven years – North Carolina ranks first in Site Selection's annual state business climate analysis.
Dan Busher, executive vice president, Force Protection, Inc.
Photo by Karen Tam Photography, Raleigh, N.C.Fifty percent of the total score is based on a survey of corporate real estate decision makers and 50 percent comes from data associated with actual project activity as tracked by our proprietary New Plant database (see the charts). Even as North Carolina economic development officials were learning of their latest business climate win in October, the state's power to produce jobs was evident. INC Research, a contract research organization (CRO), announced October 10th that it would create 1,093 new jobs through a $19-million expansion at its headquarters in Raleigh, where it already employs 362. A Job Development Investment Grant (JDIG) helped close the deal, but CEO Jim Ogle cited "access and proximity to world-class academic and research facilities" as the key factor in growing its Raleigh operation. In September, PRA International, another CRO, announced it would relocate its headquarters from northern Virginia to Raleigh, where it will have access to a well-stocked talent pool; more than 40 biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies are based in the Raleigh area. But CEO Terrance Beiker said at the project announcement that another factor was in play, as well. "The business climate and quality of life offered by North Carolina should allow the company to reduce corporate infrastructure costs and ensure a highly efficient, qualified and satisfied work force." And speaking of CROs, Quintiles Transnational Corp. announced in November 2006 a $10-million, 1,000-job expansion at its Durham headquarters. A private developer is investing $50 million to build a facility for Quintiles in Durham. But CROs aren't the only companies investing in North Carolina.
Quick and Assertive' Dan Busher, executive vice president of armored vehicle manufacturer Force Protection, Inc., wasn't surprised to learn of North Carolina's Top Business Climate billing. Busher recently worked with the state in securing a former Collins & Aikman plant in Roxboro in which to expand its manufacturing operations. "I became acquainted with what North Carolina had to offer because we were already doing business in South Carolina," he explains. "We were looking for another site and wanted to stay in the southeast generally. We spent a lot of time looking in South Carolina, which, by the way, has a good business climate, too." After scanning existing sites and buildings in the North Carolina Dept. of Commerce's database (since updated to a new EDIS, or electronic data information system),
Busher's team narrowed the search to two buildings. "The Commerce folks were very quick and assertive," says Busher, in terms of "understanding the project and our needs, and making preliminary commitments to how they might support those needs. They referred us to resources to support the grant process, too," he relates. "Locally, the folks in Person County were hungry to understand our project and needs. They wanted to not just bring on money, but take on projects as inducements to bringing in the plant. Instead of discussion about tax incentives, they wanted to know about our needs. "We were looking at a large, unsecured site, and they were aggressive about understanding what security meant to us," Busher says. "They worked with neighbors to solve existing right-of-way issues, and were quick and aggressive to resolve and move that right of way. It's really just a climate of seeking to understand in more creative ways than just throwing money at it."
United in Success "What stood out at the state, city and county levels was that once we expressed interest, they were very proactive," Busher says. "There was not a lot of bureaucracy, not a lot of red tape. They worked with us to make the application process as painless as possible. "We had one very memorable meeting," Busher recalls. "After my first viewing of the property, I told our CEO it might be worth his time for a second visit. When we came back, the economic development team of Glen Newsome [executive director of the Person County Economic Development Commission] and Jim Stovall [chairman of the Person County Economic Development Board] arranged a lunch at Piedmont Community College, whose president was there. They had the mayor, the school superintendent, city council members and county council members. We had lunch together, got to know each other and shared material about the company and the community. It wasn't just a table full of people attending a meeting. To a person, everyone had something they wanted to offer to help our project succeed. They all had something tangible to contribute to make the project a success." Force Protection's customers are led by all branches of the U.S. Dept. of Defense, but also include the Iraqi military, via the U.S. Dept. of Defense, "as part of the effort to equip and train the Iraqi Army," says Busher. Other customers include the U.K. Ministry of Defense, and there are "sales pending with the Canadians and Italians, and ongoing discussions with other parties," he says. "But you can imagine the U.S. government is inclined to consume most of our capacity."
For other pertinent info go to www.KasparTeam.com for searching for ALL listings in the triangle, Raleigh, Cary and other areas of NC real estate.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Why Mortgage Rates Just Went Up!
Check out this info from our good friends at New Garden Mortgage:
As you might know, I've been lamenting lately about the wild swings in mortgage interest rates and the difference between where rates SHOULD be and where they REALLY are.
Some of the problems are tied directly to the fact that with so many homes across the country empty or in foreclosure - and so many borrowers delinquent on mortgages - mortgage backed securities are NOT SEEN as the "safe haven" they were for the last 15 years.
Every few weeks the treasury department auctions US Treasuries to fund government debt. The treasury bonds are generally purchased by large funds wanting to have a balanced weight in their portfolios (your 401Ks and IRS accounts). This afternoon the Treasury held an auction for 30 year treasury bonds, and were surprised that there were virtually no bidders. It was the worst auction results EVER for the treasury department with 90% of the bonds purchased by dealers not funds managers. This gives the government very little options as they will obviously have difficulty issuing additional bonds to cover the new $600 per person bail out stimulus plan being debated in the Senate.
The "no bid" on 30 year treasury bonds sent the rates on 10 year treasuries sky rocketing. We are interested in this because mortgage interest rates generally follow the lead of the 10 year treasuries... All of this just reinforces the fact that the FED has no control over long term rates. They can cut the short term rates down to 1.5% - but if no one is lending money it doesn't really matter.
Bottom line, the FED and Congress are in a pickle... and rates continue to be VERY volatile!
If you know someone in need of educated mortgage options - please give them our name!
Steve and Eleanor Thorne
New Garden Mortgage
919-649-5058
As you might know, I've been lamenting lately about the wild swings in mortgage interest rates and the difference between where rates SHOULD be and where they REALLY are.
Some of the problems are tied directly to the fact that with so many homes across the country empty or in foreclosure - and so many borrowers delinquent on mortgages - mortgage backed securities are NOT SEEN as the "safe haven" they were for the last 15 years.
Every few weeks the treasury department auctions US Treasuries to fund government debt. The treasury bonds are generally purchased by large funds wanting to have a balanced weight in their portfolios (your 401Ks and IRS accounts). This afternoon the Treasury held an auction for 30 year treasury bonds, and were surprised that there were virtually no bidders. It was the worst auction results EVER for the treasury department with 90% of the bonds purchased by dealers not funds managers. This gives the government very little options as they will obviously have difficulty issuing additional bonds to cover the new $600 per person bail out stimulus plan being debated in the Senate.
The "no bid" on 30 year treasury bonds sent the rates on 10 year treasuries sky rocketing. We are interested in this because mortgage interest rates generally follow the lead of the 10 year treasuries... All of this just reinforces the fact that the FED has no control over long term rates. They can cut the short term rates down to 1.5% - but if no one is lending money it doesn't really matter.
Bottom line, the FED and Congress are in a pickle... and rates continue to be VERY volatile!
If you know someone in need of educated mortgage options - please give them our name!
Steve and Eleanor Thorne
New Garden Mortgage
919-649-5058
Friday, January 25, 2008
Stimulus Plan - Great News! Raleigh, NC!!
Here's great news for both buyers and sellers, who will find good financial benefit in the Congress and President's Real Estate Stimulation part of the up-coming Stimulus package, which should increase sales of Raleigh Real Estate, Cary Real Estate, and
Executive Homes in the area of $625,000 to $950,000, including golf course communities. All the latest Raleigh Real Estate News is on www.kasparteam.com
Stimulus plan also sparks housing market
The measures would make mortgages easier to get and reduce borrowing costs -- especially in hard-hit, high-cost houseing markets.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economic stimulus plan announced Thursday by Congress and the Bush administration includes provisions that specifically address the mortgage crisis. It aims to make getting a mortgage easier and cheaper in high-cost markets, to facilitate refinancing and to prevent foreclosures.
The package proposes lifting the dollar amount of loans that are eligible for purchase by Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and Fannie Mae (FNM).
These government sponsored enterprises currently guarantee a secondary market for loans of less than $417,000, which makes lenders more willing to issue them. The stimulus package proposes raising that cap to $625,000 for twelve months in order to make it easier for buyers to get or refinance mortgages - especially in high-cost regions like California.
"It's about time," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist for banking giant National City Corp. "The idea has rattled around Congress for a year. Most analysts agree the market for "jumbo" loans [which exceed the cap limits] has been hurt by lender flight."
The increased cap should give a boost to some of the most sluggish markets in the nation, like Florida, where high home prices typically mean that mortgages exceed the $417,000 loan limits. When credit markets contracted last summer, jumbo loans over that amount became much harder to get and, as a result, home sales in pricey markets took a hit.
"This will have a big, immediate impact, especially in California where sales have been down most significantly," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
Homeowners with jumbo mortgages also pay higher interest rates because, with no guaranteed secondary market for the loans, lenders take on more risk, and charge borrowers more for doing so.
For instance, the interest rate difference between loans that fall within the cap limit and jumbo loans was more than 1 percent on Thursday -- 6.39 percent compared with 5.30 percent, according to Bankrate.com. On a $500,000 mortgage, the difference is about $350 a month.
Pain relief for mortgage fare-ups
"The 1 percent drop is a huge factor," said Yun. "In California, it could create a mini-boom."
Before the stimulus package was announced, analysts including Merrill Lynch had come out with dire forecasts for housing markets over the next couple of years.
But, said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research. "[the raise in loan limits] could remove some of the inventory overhang and alter the buyer psychology a bit. Right now they're still waiting for prices to fall."
Yun added, "There's a lot of pent-up demand in the market. This will boost confidence among these potential buyers, and some of the people on the fence will start buying."
The National Association of Realtors recently projected that a higher loan limit, which the organization and other industry trade groups have been lobbying for, would boost home sales by nearly 350,000 a year.
It would also reduce the average period of time a home sits on the market by a month and a half, and lift prices by two or three percentage points.
Home price increases could help keep foreclosures in check by increasing a distressed owner's home equity, making it easier for them to refinance. More important and timely Raleigh Real Estate news at: www.kasparteam.com
Deal struck to send checks to taxpayersBush tax guru backs stimulus plan
Executive Homes in the area of $625,000 to $950,000, including golf course communities. All the latest Raleigh Real Estate News is on www.kasparteam.com
Stimulus plan also sparks housing market
The measures would make mortgages easier to get and reduce borrowing costs -- especially in hard-hit, high-cost houseing markets.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economic stimulus plan announced Thursday by Congress and the Bush administration includes provisions that specifically address the mortgage crisis. It aims to make getting a mortgage easier and cheaper in high-cost markets, to facilitate refinancing and to prevent foreclosures.
The package proposes lifting the dollar amount of loans that are eligible for purchase by Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and Fannie Mae (FNM).
These government sponsored enterprises currently guarantee a secondary market for loans of less than $417,000, which makes lenders more willing to issue them. The stimulus package proposes raising that cap to $625,000 for twelve months in order to make it easier for buyers to get or refinance mortgages - especially in high-cost regions like California.
"It's about time," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist for banking giant National City Corp. "The idea has rattled around Congress for a year. Most analysts agree the market for "jumbo" loans [which exceed the cap limits] has been hurt by lender flight."
The increased cap should give a boost to some of the most sluggish markets in the nation, like Florida, where high home prices typically mean that mortgages exceed the $417,000 loan limits. When credit markets contracted last summer, jumbo loans over that amount became much harder to get and, as a result, home sales in pricey markets took a hit.
"This will have a big, immediate impact, especially in California where sales have been down most significantly," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
Homeowners with jumbo mortgages also pay higher interest rates because, with no guaranteed secondary market for the loans, lenders take on more risk, and charge borrowers more for doing so.
For instance, the interest rate difference between loans that fall within the cap limit and jumbo loans was more than 1 percent on Thursday -- 6.39 percent compared with 5.30 percent, according to Bankrate.com. On a $500,000 mortgage, the difference is about $350 a month.
Pain relief for mortgage fare-ups
"The 1 percent drop is a huge factor," said Yun. "In California, it could create a mini-boom."
Before the stimulus package was announced, analysts including Merrill Lynch had come out with dire forecasts for housing markets over the next couple of years.
But, said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research. "[the raise in loan limits] could remove some of the inventory overhang and alter the buyer psychology a bit. Right now they're still waiting for prices to fall."
Yun added, "There's a lot of pent-up demand in the market. This will boost confidence among these potential buyers, and some of the people on the fence will start buying."
The National Association of Realtors recently projected that a higher loan limit, which the organization and other industry trade groups have been lobbying for, would boost home sales by nearly 350,000 a year.
It would also reduce the average period of time a home sits on the market by a month and a half, and lift prices by two or three percentage points.
Home price increases could help keep foreclosures in check by increasing a distressed owner's home equity, making it easier for them to refinance. More important and timely Raleigh Real Estate news at: www.kasparteam.com
Deal struck to send checks to taxpayersBush tax guru backs stimulus plan
Friday, January 11, 2008
NC Housing Market - Countrywide Financial
Good news for American economy and the North Carolina housing market, and sepecially for home buyers in Raleigh, N.C., Durham, Cary, Research Triangle and area: Bank of America is buying Country Wide Financial. The Charlotte Based Bank of America is now the largest mortgage lender in the North Carolina and the United States: http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080111/D8U3NTSO0.html
Excellent info here and at www.KasparTeam.com on NC Raleigh Real Estate, Vic Ksapar, Lead Broker, ReMax, Cary, NC
Excellent info here and at www.KasparTeam.com on NC Raleigh Real Estate, Vic Ksapar, Lead Broker, ReMax, Cary, NC
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Raleigh NC Real Estate Beginning to Get Back in Gear!
Hi, Vic Kaspar here. Well, things in Real Estate are starting to get back in gear now that the Holidays are mostly over and people are getting back in the swing of things. 317 homes have come on the market, newly listed in the Cary, N.C., Apex, Holly Springs and Morrrisville since the first of the year. And that's just the greater Cary area. Ten of those Three Hundred Seventeen newly listed homes have already gone under contract. More than one per day. So to those who are crying gloom and doom, it looks like 2008 is getting off to a good solid start. I'll check back the end of the month to see how this month looks as compared to last year's January. Check us out at www.KasparTeam.com
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Upbeat NC Raleigh Real Estate News for 2008
This excellent information is from Bernice Ross / Inman News!
NAR Economist Underlines Real Estate's Silver Lining
In all the years I've been writing this column, I have never received such an outpouring of response as I did from the two November articles on how media coverage of negative housing news is hurting our industry.
In spite of gloom and doom of recent news reports on the state of the nation's housing, there is plenty of good news, the most recent of which comes from the National Association of Realtors.
Laurence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, had plenty of positive news for Realtors at last month's conference. Yun attributed much of today's subprime mortgage problem to greed. Wall Street wanted the 10-12 percent return that subprime mortgages yielded as opposed to the smaller returns from more traditional mortgage products. His take on the Wall Street types: "They gambled. They lost."
Yun's outlook for 2008 sees a shift from greedy speculators to serious homeowners. 2008 will be a year of opportunity where there will be serious, healthy business. Furthermore, Yun predicted that the market returns to normal by 2009.
According to Yun, one of the biggest mistakes that reporters make is talking about national trends. Nationally, 2007 was the fifth best year ever on record. Home prices declined about 1.5 percent after a 50 percent run up in prices.
The challenge is that national numbers are pretty much irrelevant. Yun argues that talking about national averages is about as effective as having a national weather forecast. Like the weather, all real estate markets are local. In fact, you may have a buyer's market and a seller's market operating within a single market area based exclusively upon price point. Here are the other key pieces of positive news from Yun's economic report:
1. New housing starts: Even though these are dropping, there was too much building in recent years. The market is simply adjusting to normal supply-and-demand pressures. The inventory is "being controlled which makes stabilization occur more quickly."
2. Foreclosures: According to Yun, the 41 percent increase in foreclosures has resulted primarily from investor-heavy real estate purchases in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. The majority of these individuals are flippers whose investments did not payoff. More importantly, the number of foreclosures in Utah, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Carolina is actually declining.
3. Under-priced markets and superstar cities: Although the coastal markets are still overpriced, Middle America is under priced. Nevertheless, Yun cites a new trend termed, "superstar" cities. These cities will command premium prices, regardless of what the market does. There is so much wealth concentrated in these areas, that measurements are simply not predictive. In addition to London, Paris, Tokyo and New York, Yun also identified San Francisco, Miami and Seattle as potential new superstar cities.
4. The recovery has started: Other than the three states hit heavily by job losses in the automotive industry (Indiana, Michigan and Ohio), the states that first experienced a downturn in the Northeast, are now in recovery. Specifically, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island were the first to feel the slump and are now well into a recovery. Furthermore, there appears to be a pent-up demand for first-time buyer properties due to a large number of Gen Ys (born 1977 to 1994) that are now buying their first homes. Falling interest rates will motivate many of these buyers to step into the market now.
5. New jobs and corporate profits are still strong: Corporate profits are still strong with companies as diverse as Microsoft and Jack Daniels reporting close to record profits. Furthermore, the economy has generated 4 million net new jobs and wages are rising.
6. A weak dollar may harbinger more foreign investment in U.S. real estateAlthough the decline of the U.S. dollar will end up costing us more when we go overseas or purchase imports, it has resulted in more manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S. It also may mean more foreign investment in U.S. properties as well. Just a few years ago, the Canadian dollar was only worth 70 cents in U.S. currency. Today, the Canadian dollar has been hovering at about $1.05 to $1.10 U.S. What this means is that we can expect more Canadians and Europeans to be purchasing U.S. property, because our prices are approximately 50 percent cheaper than they were just three years ago.
7. Real estate: Still the best shelter: For those agents who represent reluctant first-time buyers, Yun points to some interesting research from the Federal Reserve. Between 1995 and 2004, the average renter accumulated $4,000 in wealth. In contrast, the average homeowner accumulated $184,400. Furthermore, the typical homeowner holds their property for six years. Within this period of time, NAR's research shows that approximately 97 percent of the homeowners will have a positive equity position after that period of time.
Bottom line: 2008 represents the best window that buyers will have to find excellent deals with excellent financing. Get the word out there. If they wait, prices and interest rates will be higher and the reluctant buyer may be forced out of the market.
Bernice Ross, national speaker and CEO of Realestatecoach.com, is the author of "Waging War on Real Estate's Discounters" and "Who's the Best Person to Sell My House?" Both are available online. She can be reached at bernice@realestatecoach.com or visit her blog at www.LuxuryClues.com.
NAR Economist Underlines Real Estate's Silver Lining
In all the years I've been writing this column, I have never received such an outpouring of response as I did from the two November articles on how media coverage of negative housing news is hurting our industry.
In spite of gloom and doom of recent news reports on the state of the nation's housing, there is plenty of good news, the most recent of which comes from the National Association of Realtors.
Laurence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, had plenty of positive news for Realtors at last month's conference. Yun attributed much of today's subprime mortgage problem to greed. Wall Street wanted the 10-12 percent return that subprime mortgages yielded as opposed to the smaller returns from more traditional mortgage products. His take on the Wall Street types: "They gambled. They lost."
Yun's outlook for 2008 sees a shift from greedy speculators to serious homeowners. 2008 will be a year of opportunity where there will be serious, healthy business. Furthermore, Yun predicted that the market returns to normal by 2009.
According to Yun, one of the biggest mistakes that reporters make is talking about national trends. Nationally, 2007 was the fifth best year ever on record. Home prices declined about 1.5 percent after a 50 percent run up in prices.
The challenge is that national numbers are pretty much irrelevant. Yun argues that talking about national averages is about as effective as having a national weather forecast. Like the weather, all real estate markets are local. In fact, you may have a buyer's market and a seller's market operating within a single market area based exclusively upon price point. Here are the other key pieces of positive news from Yun's economic report:
1. New housing starts: Even though these are dropping, there was too much building in recent years. The market is simply adjusting to normal supply-and-demand pressures. The inventory is "being controlled which makes stabilization occur more quickly."
2. Foreclosures: According to Yun, the 41 percent increase in foreclosures has resulted primarily from investor-heavy real estate purchases in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. The majority of these individuals are flippers whose investments did not payoff. More importantly, the number of foreclosures in Utah, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Carolina is actually declining.
3. Under-priced markets and superstar cities: Although the coastal markets are still overpriced, Middle America is under priced. Nevertheless, Yun cites a new trend termed, "superstar" cities. These cities will command premium prices, regardless of what the market does. There is so much wealth concentrated in these areas, that measurements are simply not predictive. In addition to London, Paris, Tokyo and New York, Yun also identified San Francisco, Miami and Seattle as potential new superstar cities.
4. The recovery has started: Other than the three states hit heavily by job losses in the automotive industry (Indiana, Michigan and Ohio), the states that first experienced a downturn in the Northeast, are now in recovery. Specifically, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York and Rhode Island were the first to feel the slump and are now well into a recovery. Furthermore, there appears to be a pent-up demand for first-time buyer properties due to a large number of Gen Ys (born 1977 to 1994) that are now buying their first homes. Falling interest rates will motivate many of these buyers to step into the market now.
5. New jobs and corporate profits are still strong: Corporate profits are still strong with companies as diverse as Microsoft and Jack Daniels reporting close to record profits. Furthermore, the economy has generated 4 million net new jobs and wages are rising.
6. A weak dollar may harbinger more foreign investment in U.S. real estateAlthough the decline of the U.S. dollar will end up costing us more when we go overseas or purchase imports, it has resulted in more manufacturing jobs returning to the U.S. It also may mean more foreign investment in U.S. properties as well. Just a few years ago, the Canadian dollar was only worth 70 cents in U.S. currency. Today, the Canadian dollar has been hovering at about $1.05 to $1.10 U.S. What this means is that we can expect more Canadians and Europeans to be purchasing U.S. property, because our prices are approximately 50 percent cheaper than they were just three years ago.
7. Real estate: Still the best shelter: For those agents who represent reluctant first-time buyers, Yun points to some interesting research from the Federal Reserve. Between 1995 and 2004, the average renter accumulated $4,000 in wealth. In contrast, the average homeowner accumulated $184,400. Furthermore, the typical homeowner holds their property for six years. Within this period of time, NAR's research shows that approximately 97 percent of the homeowners will have a positive equity position after that period of time.
Bottom line: 2008 represents the best window that buyers will have to find excellent deals with excellent financing. Get the word out there. If they wait, prices and interest rates will be higher and the reluctant buyer may be forced out of the market.
Bernice Ross, national speaker and CEO of Realestatecoach.com, is the author of "Waging War on Real Estate's Discounters" and "Who's the Best Person to Sell My House?" Both are available online. She can be reached at bernice@realestatecoach.com or visit her blog at www.LuxuryClues.com.
Traditions
During the holiday season and in the hectic world we create for ourselves; rushing to work, rushing to practice, rushing here or there we need something constant. A tradition is something you can create, count on and look forward to. Today I started a tradition. My husband and I did the “New Years Day Hike” at the ENO River (www.enoriver.org) where there were two hikes to choose from: a 2 ½ mile hike and an almost 5 mile hike. Both hikes are equally as beautiful and the hike is self paced. At the end of the hike there was hot chocolate, popcorn, marshmallows, water and a fire waiting for us. The hike didn’t start until 2pm, so there’s no excuse. Check it out. ENO is a fabulous natural asset to the area: 30 min from Cary or Raleigh in North Durham. Much love & Happy New Year.
I can’t wait for spring…. When life & flowers starts to bloom and… when it is the best time to put your house on the Market. If you need tips on getting ready to sell in this Raleigh, Cary North Carolina real estate market, the Kaspar Team can help! Call our Agent on Duty at (919) 469-6555 or visit our website: www.KasparTeam.com , Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker. – Submitted by Janet Allen, Realtor, Kaspar Team
I can’t wait for spring…. When life & flowers starts to bloom and… when it is the best time to put your house on the Market. If you need tips on getting ready to sell in this Raleigh, Cary North Carolina real estate market, the Kaspar Team can help! Call our Agent on Duty at (919) 469-6555 or visit our website: www.KasparTeam.com , Vic Kaspar, Lead Broker. – Submitted by Janet Allen, Realtor, Kaspar Team
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